Bank of Canada October 28 decision: hike or hold?

The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and as of October 22 nobody knows whether it will hike or hold. A growing number of bank economists now expect a 0.25% increase, while others, including CMHC's chief economist, expect rates to stay put until 2027. Either way, variable-rate borrowers, HELOC holders and anyone renewing soon should run their numbers this week.

Key takeaways

• The policy rate is 2.25% and prime is 4.45%, both unchanged since October 2025.
• BMO, Desjardins and RBC Dominion Securities have shifted to expect a hike on October 28. CMHC's chief economist expects hikes in 2027 instead.
• A 0.25% prime increase could add roughly $42 to $98 a month on the example variable mortgages below.
• Fixed rates have already risen because bond yields climbed, so a hold won't necessarily bring fixed rates back down.
• If you're renewing in the next four months, a rate hold is cheap insurance.

When is the Bank of Canada rate decision in October 2026?

The decision lands Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET, and it comes with the Bank's quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The last decision of the year is Wednesday, December 9. According to The Canadian Wire, 2027 has eight scheduled dates starting January 27.

You can check the current rate any time on the Bank of Canada's policy rate page. As of today, it's 2.25%.

Will the Bank of Canada raise rates on October 28?

The honest answer is that it's a closer call than it was a month ago. On October 21, CBC reported that the Bank is increasingly expected to raise rates this month. Several banks, including BMO, Desjardins and RBC Dominion Securities, changed their forecasts to call for an October 28 hike, according to Canada News Media.

Not everyone agrees. Mathieu Laberge, CMHC's chief economist, told Canadian Mortgage Professional, "I don't see rates going up anytime soon." He expects hikes in 2027, possibly around the end of the first quarter or early in the second.

What's pushing the Bank toward a hike?

Inflation is the main pressure. It was 3.0% in August (Canada News Media), above the Bank's 2% target. The same MPA article points to oil prices and conflict-driven supply shocks as drivers.

What's pulling the other way?

The job market. Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September and unemployment hit 6.5% (MPA). Housing is soft too. Raising rates into a weakening economy is a hard call, which is why forecasts are split.

What would a 0.25% hike mean for my variable-rate mortgage?

If your variable payment moves with prime, a 0.25% hike would raise it right away. If your payment is fixed (common with many bank variable mortgages), the payment usually stays the same, but more of it goes to interest and less to principal.

Here's approximate math for an adjustable payment. These use an example rate of 4.20% rising to 4.45%, 25 years remaining, monthly payments. These are example rates, not a quote, and your lender's math may differ slightly.

That's roughly $500 to $1,180 a year on these examples. Not a crisis for most people, but it adds up if a second hike follows. The Globe and Mail reported in September that bond swaps priced in one hike by year end and a second in early 2027.

Want to see your own number? Plug your balance into the payment calculator.

What would a hike mean for my HELOC?

HELOC rates are almost always tied to prime, so a 0.25% hike would raise your rate the next billing cycle. The simple math: 0.25% on a $100,000 balance is $250 a year, or about $21 a month in extra interest. On $50,000, it's about $10 a month.

The bigger issue is if you're only paying interest and the balance isn't shrinking. If that's you, it may be worth looking at rolling some of that balance into a structured mortgage. I cover that on my HELOC page and the refinance page.

What happens to fixed rates if the Bank holds?

Fixed rates may not drop much, even with a hold. Fixed rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, and those have already climbed. The 5-year yield was around 3.62% on October 7, according to Money.ca. All of the Big Six banks raised fixed rates since early September, with TD and RBC up as much as 40 to 50 basis points on some terms.

A hold could calm bond markets a bit. A hike could push yields higher or, if markets already expected it, do very little. Fixed rates react to expectations as much as the decision itself.

I'm renewing soon. What should I do?

Start early and get a rate hold. Rate holds commonly run up to 120 days (The Canadian Wire), so if your term ends before late February, you can likely lock something in now and still take a lower rate if one shows up.

You're not alone in feeling the pressure. An RBC/Leger poll found 82% of homeowners renewing within two years worry about rate increases, according to bips. A CMHC survey from May 2026 found renewers saw payments rise by an average of $375 a month (same source).

A few things worth knowing:

1. Federally regulated lenders must send your renewal notice at least 21 days before your term ends. Don't wait for it.
2. You can switch lenders at renewal. Since late 2024, uninsured straight switches no longer require the stress test (Money.ca, citing OSFI).
3. Your current lender's first offer isn't always its best one.

My renewal page walks through the process, and the renewal calculator shows what a new rate could do to your payment.

Should I switch from variable to fixed before October 28?

Maybe, but don't do it in a panic. Fixed rates have already moved up, so locking in now means paying for some of that protection. If a 0.25% or even 0.50% move on your variable payment would genuinely strain your budget, fixed may give you peace of mind. If you have room in your budget, variable may still make sense. It depends on your balance, your penalty to switch, and how long you plan to keep the property.

What I'd do next

If you're on a variable rate or HELOC, I'd calculate what a 0.25% and a 0.50% increase would do to your monthly cash flow, then decide whether that's comfortable. If you're renewing in the next four months, I'd get a rate hold in place before October 28 so you're covered either way. And I'd keep an eye on my news page, where I'll post what the Bank actually does.

If you want me to run your numbers, answer a few quick questions and pick a time to talk.

Frequently asked questions

This article is general information as of October 22, 2026 and isn't financial, legal or tax advice, a quote or an offer. Rates, rules and programs change. All mortgages are subject to lender approval (OAC).